OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada signalled it is drawing closer to the end of what’s been one of the fastest rate hike cycles in its history Wednesday as it raised its key interest rate by a half-percentage point – but made it clear that more rate hikes are coming as inflation stays hot.
Though less than what some economists expected, the increase is still more than the typical quarter-point raise and Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem wouldn’t rule out the possibility of additional large hikes to come.
“We are getting closer to the end of this tightening phase but we’re not there yet,” he said during a news conference.
Since March, the central bank has raised its key interest rate six consecutive times, bringing it from 0.25 per cent to 3.75 per cent.
Macklem said the central bank will be paying attention to how the economy continues to evolve in response to rising rates. In its latest economic projections, also released Wednesday, the Bank of Canada downgraded its growth forecast.
It expects economic growth to stall by the end of this year and the first two quarters of 2023, with growth somewhere between zero per cent and 0.5 per cent, before gaining ground in the back half of next year.
“Two, three quarters of slightly negative growth is just as likely as two, three quarters of positive growth. That’s not a severe contraction but it is a significant slowing of the economy,” Macklem said.
Read the full Opening Statement
Tu Nguyen, an economist with RSM Canada, said the bank’s decision to hike by half of a percentage point is “surprising” and “risky” given the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates by three-quarters of a percentage point next week.
“That could be risky in the sense that it could weaken the Canadian dollar even more than it is right now,” Nguyen said. “That could fuel inflation even further, because it makes anything that is imported from the U.S. to Canada more expensive.”
Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem, while briefing reporters in Ottawa about the central bank’s latest interest rate hike, responds to a question about the possibility of a recession.#cdnpoli #cdnecon pic.twitter.com/ATvQnbQ9v4
— CPAC (@CPAC_TV) October 26, 2022
BMO chief economist Douglas Porter said he still expects the Bank of Canada to take its key interest rate above four per cent. However, he said he now expects the central bank to opt for two smaller rate hikes of a quarter percentage each.
“I would lean towards a pair of quarter-point hikes, and then the bank pausing to see how the economy handles that,” Porter said.
In its latest monetary policy report, the bank notes that although inflation in Canada has eased in recent months, prices for food and services continue to rise rapidly.
Canada’s annual inflation rate dropped slightly in September to 6.9 per cent but the cost of groceries continues to climb. According to Statistics Canada, the cost of groceries has been rising at the fastest pace since 1981, with prices up 11.4 per cent in September compared with a year ago.
The Bank of Canada says it expects inflation to slow to three per cent by the end of 2023 before getting back to its two per cent target by the end of 2024.
The Bank of Canada maintains the Canadian economy continues to operate with significant excess demand while businesses face widespread labour shortages.
The bank’s rate hikes aim to slow demand in the economy by raising the cost of borrowing for Canadians and businesses and thereby lower inflation.
As fears of an impending recession grow, the central bank lowered its forecast for growth both domestically and globally.
Read the full October 2022 Monetary Policy Report
Its longer-run forecast suggest the Canadian economy will grow by just under one per cent in 2023, then by two per cent in 2024.
The bank said that while it previously considered the negative effects of supply chain disruptions and the labour market mismatch to be temporary, it now assumes them to be permanent. That change will weigh on economic growth, though higher immigration will partially offset their effects, the bank said.
Global growth is expected to decline from 3.25 per cent in 2022 to about 1.5 per cent in 2023, marking the slowest rate of global growth since 1982, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2008-09 global financial crisis. It’s then expected to rebound to about 2.5 per cent in 2024.
BOC’S GOV. MACKLEM: IT WAS APPROPRIATE TO SLOW THE RATE OF INCREASE IN OUR POLICY RATES FROM VERY LARGE STEPS TO A LARGE STEP.
— Breaking Market News ⚡️ (@financialjuice) October 26, 2022
Regarding the Bank of Canada rate decision, the definition of pivot today is only going 50 basis points!#RosenbergResearch
— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) October 26, 2022
BOC’S GOV. MACKLEM: THE NEXT TIME THE BANK RAISES RATES, IT COULD BE A LARGER-THAN-USUAL HIKE, OR IT COULD BE A NORMAL-SIZED HIKE.
— Breaking Market News ⚡️ (@financialjuice) October 26, 2022
2 BMO: What’s notable is that current #mortgage rates are now running into or above past stress-test levels. Five years ago, borrowers taking 5-year fixed #mortgage rates would have qualified around 5% …#cdnecon #housing
— Don Curren 🇺🇦 (@dbcurren) October 26, 2022
3 BMO: … many will be renewing into higher rates (not a huge risk yet after five years of wage growth, and a tightened stress test through 2018). #mortgages #housing #BOC #cdnecon
— Don Curren 🇺🇦 (@dbcurren) October 26, 2022
Pretty wild that the Bank of Canada had only done one rate increase of 50 bps (or more) this century, all the way back in May of 2000.
Now we’ve had 4 such increases this year – all in the last 6 and a half months. pic.twitter.com/y2ewNTk2yt
— Scott Ingram REALTOR® (@areacode416) October 26, 2022
A closer look at shelter inflation from the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report todayhttps://t.co/I5fJZRGuQf pic.twitter.com/18786yD1Xw
— John Pasalis (@JohnPasalis) October 26, 2022
BOC’S GOV. MACKLEM: BOC SEES A SIGNIFICANT SLOWING OF THE CANADIAN ECONOMY.
— Breaking Market News ⚡️ (@financialjuice) October 26, 2022
The Bank of Canada increased the policy rate by 0.5% (exp. 0.75%).
Along with the decision they released Monetary Policy Report showing the first downward revision to the inflation path since the beginning of the pandemic.
2023 🇨🇦 GDP was also revised down from 0.3% to -1.4%👀 pic.twitter.com/Zcl50scqki— Alex (xelan) (@xelan_gta) October 26, 2022
BOC’S GOV. MACKLEM: WE ARE STILL A LONG WAY FROM ACHIEVING THE GOAL OF LOW, STABLE, AND PREDICTABLE INFLATION.
— Breaking Market News ⚡️ (@financialjuice) October 26, 2022
Hi-Ratio Variable goes to about 4.80% but most important for any Static Payment Variable that closed in the last 2 years most Trigger Rates have been hit
The majority of those mortgage payments no longer cover the Interest Cost of the rising rate so payments must go up
3/
— Ron Butler (@ronmortgageguy) October 26, 2022
$500K Variable Rate Mortgages with increasing payments 30 year Amort:
Feb 2022 Payment: $1712.59
Nov 2022 Payment: $2773.83
Again a massive difference
If we thought RE in Canada was cold
Winter was coming it just showed up
— Ron Butler (@ronmortgageguy) October 26, 2022
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, speaking to reporters ahead of question period, is asked about the Bank of Canada’s latest interest rate hike and the possibility of a recession.#cdnpoli | #cdnecon pic.twitter.com/qO5mc6NubP
— CPAC (@CPAC_TV) October 26, 2022
“What we’re saying is let’s be really serious about the impact of increased interest rates,” said NDP leader Jagmeet Singh as he discussed his concerns with the Bank of Canada’s latest rate hike.#cdnpoli | #cdnecon pic.twitter.com/Sm4CZGrqvH
— CPAC (@CPAC_TV) October 26, 2022
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 26, 2022.